COVID-19 has turned many lives upside down. For some, avoiding the daily commute is a joy, while for others, isolation is a struggle. Are the impacts permanent or will we move on? We ranked a few behavioural changes induced by covid-19 containment measures, finding that working from home, online shopping and exercising from home may be best positioned to persist after the crisis in the form of habits.
Jeremy Grantham co-founded GMO in 1997 and is a member of its Asset Allocation team, serving as the long-term investment strategist. He was interviewed by Kunal Kapoor, CEO of Morningstar, at the Morningstar Investor Conference Australia on 2 June 2021.
It was a year of trials and tribulations, where patience was tested but those in for the long haul were ultimately relieved and rewarded. Late March provided some rare opportunities for those with cash. 2021 is unlikely to be a repeat. Markets could begin the year with an extension of the current upswing, but as it unfolds several questions will undoubtedly be asked about the progress of the economic recovery and the relationship to risk asset valuations.
To answer the headline’s rhetorical question, Mr. Buffett can indeed predict the future of the stock market, just as Glendower can call spirits from the vasty deep. However, Hotspur’s response to Glendower remains salient: “Why, so can I, or so can any man. But will they come when you do call for them?”
Relatively flexible, or unconstrained, fixed-interest strategies have touted their capacity to handle higher-bond yields better than more-traditional options. Our prior research has found some validity to these claims, albeit in a limited sample size. There were more opportunities to test this in 2018. We consequently investigate whether this has remained true and discuss the implications for using these vehicles in portfolios.
The 2019 Australian Morningstar Awards took place last Friday evening at the Establishment in Sydney. Congratulations to Vanguard for taking out the overall Fund Manager of the Year, and all our category winners. All winners in the Morningstar Awards have demonstrated themselves to be good stewards of investors’ capital.
In our recent Reader Survey, about 40% of respondents reported portfolio losses of over 20% between January and March 2020, although the market rise since the lows has pared back some of the pain. We opened the Morningstar Direct data base for the Australian All Ordinaries Accumulation Index to measure the total returns (including dividends) over one year, three years and five years since 1983. There are good reasons to take comfort from the charts, and the pictures ‘tell a thousand words’. Of course, Covid-19 is a unique threat, and only time will tell whether ‘this time is different’.
Call it Robinhood traders, the corona generation, YOLO (You Only Live Once), TINA (There is No Alternative) or simply retail investors, but trading by individuals has hit global equity markets in massive numbers. Some daily moves are called a battle between the smart professional sellers and the dumb retail buyers, but since the 23 March bottom, the dumb money has been right. So far.
We’ve heard questions from many clients about why the market is doing so well right now given how bad the economy is, and whether we will see the lows of March 2020 retested. They’re good questions, but there might not be clear-cut answers for those who want certainty. We’ll discuss three points embedded in investors’ questions.
One should never say never, but I have never nor will I probably ever again experience the level of uncertainty that currently exists. Everywhere one looks, uncertainty abounds. How can anyone predict the outcome of something that has never been experienced? Risk escalates. No one knows what the future holds and personal biases only muddy the waters. Objectivity should be key, intellectual humility its companion.
Having a future-proof investment strategy is not only legally compulsory, but also one of the best ways to enhance retirement savings. Amid volatile markets, how can self-managed super funds get the right settings in place?
Recent market volatility suggests a review of investment strategy is advisable, particularly ahead of the approaching new financial year. The Australian Taxation Office says the strategy must be reviewed at least annually, and when “significant events” occur including a market correction.
Adding to the jargon that fills the superannuation industry and confuses most people, two common words have taken on new meanings. They sound innocent, but when a Morrison Government minister uses the words ‘efficiency’ and ‘flexibility’ in the super debate, they now have particular definitions. And in neither case is it the way we previously understood superannuation.
The actions of central banks around the world are well known—they are undertaking substantial quantitative-easing programs to support their economies. While they have control of cash rates and their bond purchases at the shorter end have been more effective at keeping rates low, further out the curve, they have not. And even in the face of central bank purchases, investors have sold longer-dated bonds and quickly driven up rates in early 2021. Unsurprisingly, this has had flow-on effects in other markets, too, particularly equities. This article explores what is going on in the bond markets now, how our fixed-interest managers have fared, and what it means for equity markets.
The circumstances of the current market crash might be unique to the coronavirus pandemic, but they lead investors to wonder: Are such drops normal for equity markets, or is this different? The regularity of market crashes is a reminder that patience is key to investing in equity markets.
As the market pendulum continues to swing back and forth, many investors may be struggling to rein in their emotions. During these troubling times, financial advisers can use behavioral coaching tactics to help their clients manage their emotions and avoid making rash decisions.
There is widespread optimism around the move to independence and the professionalisation of financial advice, yet the immediate uncertainty and unravelling of the landscape following the Banking Royal Commission, is causing many advisers to rethink their business models and even their careers.
The severe shock brought on by COVID-19 brought unprecedented volatility and repercussions that have reverberated through our daily lives. How can we make sure our clients’ emotions don’t get in the way of their better judgement when making financial decisions?
In a tough year for most investors, even Warren Buffett had a mixed year by his standards. The share price of his Berkshire Hathaway (BRBK.B) investment company inched forward by just 2.5%, lagging major US benchmarks like the S&P 500. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett had a mixed year by his standards, with some winners such as Apple and Snowflake balanced by banks and energy.
It was a rough year for some of Australia’s biggest companies as covid a toll and low rates inflated asset prices. For the year 2020 only two of Morningstar’s 11 wide moat stocks posted positive returns. At the end of the year Australia’s top stocks were in general back to square one, with the benchmark S&P ASX 200 posting a return of -0.36 per cent.
COVID-19 has produced big winners and losers on the Australian stock exchange, and this month, we focus on Morningstar research to find the opportunities. A Morningstar stock screener reveals a cross-section of companies with competitive advantages that are trading at material discounts. We invite you to explore these stocks to get a fuller picture of Morningstar analysts’ take on the pros and cons of each.
Advice is evolving at a rapid pace—shifting from a world of product distribution to true client-centric advice. Today, the conversation is focused on the clients’ goals and aspirations. Advisers will spend less time selecting products and building portfolios and more time supporting their clients through the inevitable ups and downs of markets, helping them stay the course to meet their goals.
After a long period of growth, both performance and assets have tailed off for real listed assets since 2016, raising the question of whether they’ve seen their best days for the time being. Recent analysis from our Manager Research Team reveals some significant shifts worth noting for clients with portfolio exposure to this sector.
Afterpay has taken thousands of retail investors on a ride few will experience again, leaving behind the most astute professional investors in the country. Relatively few fund managers believe in the value and it’s not possible to value this company on normal metrics. Graham Hand says whether it is worth $10 or $100 depends on the market’s ongoing belief in the growth story.
While well-intentioned, the industry’s current approach to matching investors to appropriate investments is incomplete. To help, Stephen Wendel, Head of Behavioural Science at Morningstar, outlines how you can better manage your risk-averse clients during times of market volatility.
Australia’s Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry serves as a stark reminder of the importance of stewardship in evaluating a managed investment product. See how we rate the “big 5’s” stewardship of their funds management business’.
The Retirement Income Review (RIR) noted that many retirees leave large bequests and they would have enjoyed a higher standard of living in retirement if only they had spent some of their capital, not just the income from their investments. Planning cash flow in retirement is extremely difficult because of the uncertainties about expenditure, doubts about investment returns and unpredictability about how long we are going to live.
Most Australians hold their superannuation in a balanced fund, often 60 per cent growth/40 per cent defensive or 70 per cent/30 per cent. Lifecycle funds are also popular, where the amount in defensive assets increases with age. Employees who are not engaged with their super (and that’s most people when they start full-time work) simply tick a box for the default fund selected on their behalf by the employer.
ETFs had a slow start, making little progress by the time the GFC came in 2008. LICs flourished while they had the support of financial advisers and handsome stamping fees paid by issuers. It was not until the end of 2018 that ETFs finally took over LICs. ETFs have since become the avengers, sweeping LICs aside with the inclusion of a wide range of indexes, sectors and niche products, and a big boost from the Magellan active funds.
The mantra “buy the dip” started as a chorus to the gyrations of Bitcoin’s price. Since then, it has cemented a place in the investor’s glossary thanks to an age-old fear: trying to time the market. Investors can be especially prone to this kind of fear and regret. Whether buying Bitcoin in 2015 or mortgaging the house to buy stocks in late March 2020, it’s easy to lose sleep over market timing.
With or without COVID, investors want businesses with predictable earnings and recurring revenues, especially disruptive businesses benefitting from change in the global economy, with a large addressable market. Here are some examples of what happened during COVID.
This is an interview with Bill Bengen, who is widely known as the father of the 4% ‘safe withdrawal rate’ that he put into practice. Bill discusses how he first developed the safe withdrawal rate research, the retirement problem in the early 1990s that he was trying to solve, how Bill integrated his 4% rule into his financial planning business, and why he didn’t actually use the 4% safe withdrawal rate with his clients.
The COVID-19 outbreak has created a large dent in near-term oil demand and triggered spiralling energy prices. However, local oil & gas producers are some of the best placed to weather the COVID-19 meltdown and emerge comparatively stronger. In this article, we dive deeply and explore the four major Australian E&P companies which have 5-star recommendations.
Investors in shares must expect market shocks as part of the long-term benefits of owning part of a company, and on average over time, stock markets fall one year in every five. We have put together some graphs which show some fundamental principles of investing, and how markets have recovered from previous shocks, with supporting commentary.
Jane Hume and Paul Keating are kicking around a favourite political football, superannuation, but what’s the score at half time? Treasury initially estimated that $29 billion would be withdrawn from super when the early release was announced in response to COVID-19. With the scheme now extended until the end of 2020, the estimate has been revised to $42 billion.
This year’s turbulent market was yet another reminder of the power of portfolio rebalancing for risk reduction. In this article, I’ll look at how different rebalancing frequencies have paid off in 2020’s turbulent market, as well as during other market drawdowns. In a nutshell, any rebalancing strategy works far better than none at all, especially when it comes to risk control.
Investors want more information and further education to help them effectively use ETFs. It’s worthwhile revisiting the 10 rules of thumb for ETF transactions that we published in 2015. Every rule remains just as relevant in 2019, and we wouldn’t be surprised if these rules remain relevant for years to come.
On 3 November, we announced our plans to acquire AdviserLogic, an Australian financial planning software platform that will broaden our product suite and expand our set of capabilities for independent financial advisers.
Contributor Michael Pompian introduces a new series that examines the relationship between the “Big Five” personality traits and the behavioral biases of investors. The “Big Five” model is a classification scheme that attempts to cover the major aspects of one’s personality.
There’s a huge need for great investing advice, and great advice begins with us. Not just with Morningstar, but with the institutions building investment products; with the plan sponsors trying to help a workforce unlock the power of their retirement plans; and with the advisers who face the push and pull between serving clients and building successful practices.
Well, that was quick. Despite bleak global economic outlook and the continued uncertainty brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, as of August 6, 2020, the US market recovered to its pre-pandemic high. The covid-19 bear market goes down in history as one of the least painful on record, lasting a total of about 120 trading days with a maximum drawdown of about 34 per cent.
Strategic-beta fixed-income funds attempt to deliver better performance than traditional market-capitalisation-weighted index funds, or a specific outcome like a constant duration. These strategies often seem more intuitively appealing than the alternative of owning a broad market-cap weighted portfolio but there are 6 key factors that advisers need to consider before deciding whether to include these strategies into a client’s portfolio.
History will record that the few years until 2019 were halcyon days for Listed Investment Companies (LICs) and Listed Investment Trusts (LITs). The main listed competitor for the LIC/LIT structure is Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). While LICs/LITs have failed to launch any primary transactions in 2020, ETFs have gone from strength to strength, reaching a record $70 billion in August, a lead of $25 billion over their rivals.
Gold has hit a record high and investors have poured billions into gold tracker funds. But should you invest? Despite its allure and popularity, some experts say that holding gold is not a sensible investment move – particularly after its recent climb. Here are just some of the reasons not to invest in gold.
Many of your clients may be financially stable or very well-off but are still tormented by their finances. As advisers, how can you help these clients reduce their financial anxiety and even improve their financial well-being? To answer this question, we explored the power of social comparisons and identified a few ways that you can use this natural tendency to help clients.
Active ETFs are the latest phase of a passive revolution in the Australian investment market. Last year assets under management in Aussie-listed ETFs grew by more than 30 per cent; proving low cost options are gaining popularity fast. Australia’s ETF sector broke through the $40 billion barrier in August to reach another new record of $41.5 billion.
I’m not ready to retire any time soon, but my recent sabbatical from Morningstar–a six-week break totally free from work obligations, available to Morningstar’s US employees every four years–gave me a chance to noodle on what retirement would feel like for me.
Financially, more serious than the outbreak of coronavirus would be an outbreak of investor complacency. Unknowns like the coronavirus are a compelling reason for investors to always be prepared and vigilant, even more so with markets near record levels.
How to make your retirement savings last is an age-old conundrum. Bill Sharpe, the US economist and Nobel Prize winner, called it “the hardest, nastiest problem in finance”. How much can you sustainably withdraw from your pension pot? And what’s a sensible way to allocate assets in it?
At the heart of the challenge facing the industry today is rebuilding trust. Trust is the foundation of every relationship. None more so than between financial adviser and client. And in the wake of the Royal Commission’s Interim Report, Morningstar is playing a key role in helping the industry and advisers regain trust through full transparency.
When was the last time you checked in on your clients’ top financial goals? This steps on this worksheet can set advisers on the right path for showing investors how to avoid behavioral biases, establish strong financial goals, and implement behaviors to help meet these goals.
Morningstar
